Risk analysis

Strategic risk analysis

In order to deliver strategic risk analysis products, Frontex brings together information from a wide range of sources including national authorities, EU partners EU partners (such as the European Commission, EASO, Europol, EEAS, EU SATCEN and Eurostat), international organisations (such as UNHCR, IOM, Interpol), Frontex’s own operational activities and open sources.

Frontex analyses the collected information to establish and maintain common situational awareness regarding patterns and trends in irregular migration and cross-border criminal activities impacting EU external borders and the so-called secondary movements within the Schengen area. Strategic risk analyses enable informed decision-making on priorities and appropriate risk mitigation measures.

Frontex exchanges information with its different partners regularly and in a structured manner based on the Common Integrated Risk Analysis Model (CIRAM). The collaborative risk analysis networks are an essential feature of Frontex strategic risk analysis work. Currently there are six risk analysis networks active in the field of strategic risk analysis. Frontex Risk Analysis Network (FRAN) connects Frontex with Member States’ risk analysis and intelligence experts. The FRAN provides the framework for sharing knowledge, carrying out joint analytical work and producing analytical and strategic reports on the current state of play at the external borders. The European Document Fraud Risk Analysis Network (EDF-RAN) is a sub-network of the FRAN enabling Member States’ document fraud experts to engage in structured and regular information exchange and to work collaboratively.

Given the success of the FRAN, Frontex has rolled out this concept also for joint analytical work to many of its non-EU partner countries. Regional risk analysis networks represent an opportunity for mutually beneficial information and knowledge sharing between the EU and the participating countries on a continuous and structured basis. The knowledge generated within these networks feeds into planning of participants’ own border management activities but also to higher level strategic and even EU funded capacity building activities. 

Strategic risk analysis products are problem and future-oriented all-sources assessments. Especially annual risk analysis reports provide more in-depth situational awareness by among others identifying key factors driving the situation at the external borders. Monitoring of these key drivers and critical change factors enables Frontex to provide early warning as required also by the Regulation on the European Border and Coast Guard. Situational awareness is maintained through different periodicals – quarterly, monthly, bi-weekly and even daily reports – as required and assessed fit-for-purpose.

All Strategic Risk Analysis reports can be found in the Public Register of Documents here.