WB ARA 2010


This  first  annual  risk  analysis  (WB-ARA)  has  been  developed  jointly  in  accordance with the Frontex May 2009 proposal to establish a permanent Western  Balkan  Risk  Analysis  Network  (WB-RAN)  between  the  Risk  Analysis  Units  of  the  competent  border-control  authorities  of  Albania,  Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH),  Croatia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Frontex Risk Analysis Unit (RAU).

Given the current scope of regular information exchange in the context of WB-RAN  and  Frontex  Risk  Analysis  Network  (FRAN),  the  WB-ARA  focuses  mainly  on  the  threat  of  irregular  migration.  The  public  version  of  the  first  annual    risk  analysis  is  structured  around  the  following  main  elements:  (1)  a  description  of  the  situation  through  a  set  of  indicators  on  irregular  migration,  (2)  a  short  analysis  of  the  three  distinctive  irregular  migration flows, impacting both the area of Western Balkans and Member States, and (3) forecasts. The restricted version of the analysis describes  also  factors  likely  to  influence  irregular  migration  in  the  area  of  Western  Balkans  and  the  EU.  It concludes with  recommendations  aimed  at  addressing     identified     vulnerabilities     and     strengthening     border management and border security.