Severe winter storms and rough seas across key migratory routes contributed to a sharp 60% year-on-year drop in irregular border crossings into the European Union in January 2026, with around 5 500 detections recorded, preliminary data collected by Frontex showed.
Harsh conditions in the Mediterranean and strong winds along land borders made journeys significantly more dangerous and disrupted departures.
The weather may have slowed departures, but it did not stop ruthless smugglers. Even in freezing temperatures and heavy seas, they continued to launch overcrowded, unseaworthy boats, sending vulnerable people into life-threatening conditions to protect their profits.
The human cost has been devastating. According to the International Organization for Migration, more than 450 people lost their lives in the Mediterranean in January alone; this is more than three times the figure recorded in January 2025.
With more than 3 000 officers along the EU’s external borders, Frontex continues to support national authorities in protecting Europe’s borders and saving lives at sea, even in the harshest conditions.
Key highlights:
- The Eastern Mediterranean was the busiest route, with a third of all the irregular entries into the EU.
- The Western African route saw the steepest decline, down 79% compared with January 2025.
- The most frequently detected nationalities were Afghan, Algerian and Bangladeshi, although the nationality of many arrivals is still being verified.
