Today, Frontex,
the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, published its Annual Risk
Analysis for 2025–2026, providing a comprehensive overview of the
challenges and pressures at the European Union’s external borders.
The report
comes at a time of profound geopolitical uncertainty. With challenges
stretching from the Eastern land borders to Africa, and new tactics used to
challenge Europe’s unity, Frontex’s role has never been more vital: offering accurate,
timely intelligence that empowers Member States to foresee crises, not just
react to them.
The report’s
key findings include:
- Eastern Borders: Use of migration as a pressure
tool continues to drive unpredictability and hybrid threats.
- Southern routes: Instability, external influence
in Africa, and worsening humanitarian crises across the Sahel are fuelling
new migratory routes and smuggling activity.
- Air borders: Fraudulent documents, visa
misuse, and increased use of lesser-controlled airports present a growing
challenge.
- Cross-border crime: Organised criminal groups are
becoming more agile, making use of digital tools, drones, and fake documents
to bypass border security.
- Hybrid threats: Disinformation, sabotage, and
attempts to destabilise the EU’s cohesion remain ongoing concerns.
Looking ahead,
Frontex experts anticipate continued migratory pressure and an expanding mix of
security threats, ranging from the movement of high-risk individuals to the
development of smuggling routes and weapon trafficking.
Frontex has
evolved into a strategic partner to Member States, not just supplying
operational support, but helping build preparedness through intelligence,
coordination, and a deep commitment to accountability and fundamental rights.
The Annual
Risk Analysis is an essential part of the EU’s integrated border management
strategy. It supports national authorities in safeguarding their borders while
upholding the European values.
The full report is
available here.