Frontex Annual Brief: Comprehensive Overview and Outlook for 2024


Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, released its Annual Brief, providing an in-depth analysis of the migratory situation facing Europe and forecasting trends for 2024.

In 2023, Europe witnessed a significant increase in irregular migration, reflecting the geopolitical challenges in our neighbouring regions. With over 420 000 irregular border crossings detected (roughly 380 000 on entry and 62 000 on exit), our dedicated analysts have examined these patterns to guide Frontex’s strategic planning and operational responses for the coming year.

Key Insights from 2023

  • Substantial rise in irregular migration, particularly through sea routes, indicating the need for continued vigilance and adaptive strategies.
  • Uptick in the arrival of vulnerable groups, including women and children, underscoring the importance of protection measures in our operations.
  • Evolving tactics of people smugglers, showcasing the necessity for advanced analytical capabilities to foresee and counteract these threats.

Outlook for 2024

Frontex analysts predict that irregular migration will remain a significant challenge in 2024.

European border management will face a complex geopolitical environment this year, with the possibility of increased migration and cross-border crime. These challenges are likely to impact primarily the Central and Eastern Mediterranean migratory routes. An increase in pressure there could also affect the Western Balkans.

Key points include:

  • Enhanced efforts to mitigate migratory flows, with a focus on sustainable solutions in cooperation with EU and national authorities.
  • The potential rise in secondary movements and the entry of high-risk individuals, necessitating robust and agile border management practices.
  • Cross-border crime will likely be driven by factors such as natural disasters and unrest leading to displacement, exposing vulnerable groups to risks of migrant smuggling and increased exploitation.

Frontex remains committed to safeguarding Europe’s borders while upholding the highest standards of border management and respecting fundamental rights. By applying our analysts’ insights, we strive to stay ahead of emerging challenges and safeguard a secure Europe.