The latest report by the Frontex Risk Analysis Network (FRAN) shows a clear shift from the East to the Central Mediterranean as the focus for irregular migration at the EU’s external borders. For the first time since the beginning of data collection in 2008,detections of illegal border crossings in the first quarter of the year (Q1) exceeded those for the previous quarter. The shift, from the Greek-Turkish land border to the Italian sea border, specifically to Lampedusa and other Pelagic Islands forming part of the EU southern maritime border, was due to the influx of migrants, predominantly from Tunisia, in the wake of political upheavals in the North Africa region. Approximately 20 000 Tunisian migrants were detected in the Pelagic Islands during Q1 2011, making it also the first quarter in which the highest number of irregular migrants was reported by a Member State other than Greece. Tunisians also figured more prominently among apprehension for suspected people-smuggling (facilitation) than in previous quarters. Since the end of the reporting period (March 2011) the flow of Tunisians has reduced significantly, in part due to an accelerated repatriation agreement between the Italian and Tunisian governments in April though the flow was followed by asubsequent influx from Libya of primarily sub-Saharan migrants following civil unrest and NATO Operation Unified Protector in Libya.
Despite the shift of emphasis away from Greece due to the exceptional circumstances in North Africa and the Middle East, the Greek land border with Turkey remains an area of key concern for irregular migration, representing more than half the EU total, when migration to Italy is discounted. Although detections of irregular migrants and facilitators fell by 60% on the previous quarter (Q4 2010) this reduction is seen as chiefly due to the deployment by Frontex of Rapid Border Intervention Teams (RABITs) between November 2010 and March 2011, and seasonal factors. With both those elements absent in the subsequent reporting period (April-June 2011), this land border is considered one of high migratory pressure with detections expected to increase in the short term. Available data also suggest that Turkey remains the main transit country for irregular migrants seeking to enter the EU by both land and air.
Other main points of the FRAN Quarterly for January-March 2011 include:
- Somalian nationals were detected in much lower numbers at the Greek-Turkish land border than in theprevious quarter, but increasingly in Malta, at the Slovakia-Ukraine land border and overstaying in Greece.
- Circular migration by Albanian nationals, which was previously a prominent feature of irregular crossing figures at the EU external borders, fell significantly due to visa liberalisation measures for biometric passport holders as from December 2010. However in Q1 2011 they Albanian nationals were increasingly refused entry at border crossing points (BCPs).
- For the first time more Albanians were refused than any other nationality, nearly all in connection with alerts in the Schengen Information System.
- Possibly related to countermeasures taken by the Serbian authorities to address the abuse of visa liberalisation, between Q4 2010 and Q1 2011, the peak of Serbian asylum applications declined by 50% at the EU level.