Report: Training and methodology consultancy on scenario building in the context of risk analysis for law enforcement


June 2023 Industry Days Report

We are happy to share the downloadable files and presentations from our Industry Days – Training and methodology consultancy on scenario building that took place on 21 June 2023.

What did we seek?

We were looking for service providers capable of offering a tailor-made framework encompassing training, processes, methodologies, and tools in the context of risk analysis for law enforcement (please see the original announcement below).

How many proposals did we receive?

  • 8 relevant submissions, out of which
  • 4 were selected to give presentation in an online meeting.

What subjects did we cover in the online meeting?

  • the new solutions included in the submissions,
  • the details of the technical and practical features of the proposals,
  • an interactive exchange between industry, Frontex Risk Analysis Unit’s experts.

Where can I find the presentations?

All presentations can be accessed via the links below.

What are Industry Days?

Frontex assists the EU countries in supporting the development of modern technologies for the European Border and Coast Community. As part of its mandate, Frontex regularly meets with industry, researchers, and experts from the Member States to provide a platform for discussion and help develop new technologies and innovations related to border control.

Announcement: Training and methodology consultancy on scenario building in the context of risk analysis for law enforcement


Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, plays a crucial role in supporting EU Member States and Schengen-associated countries in managing the EU's external borders. As a central component of European integrated border management, Frontex conducts comprehensive analysis on risks impacting the EU's external borders.

Frontex’s risk analysis activities fall into three categories: strategic analysis, operational analysis and third-country analysis. Strategic analysis is aimed at high-level strategic decision-makers, while operational analysis supports Frontex-coordinated joint operations. Third-country analysis focuses on long-term cooperation with external partners in regions from which threats and challenges posed to the EU external border originate and pass through (Western Balkans, Turkey, Eastern Partnership and Africa).

In complex, dynamic, and uncertain environments, scenario building is crucial for developing plausible alternative futures, enhancing preparedness, and aiding decision-making processes and strategic foresight. Moreover, according to EBCG Art. 9(5) of Regulation (EU) 2019/1896, contingency plans and national capability development plans for European integrated border management should be based on scenarios derived from risk analysis.

These scenarios should reflect the potential evolution of the situation at external borders, especially in the area of illegal immigration, as well as challenges identified in the multiannual strategic policy cycle.

To comply with these requirements and ensure efficient scenario analysis and planning, Frontex and the European Border and Coast Guard community need a tailor-made framework encompassing training, processes, methodologies, and tools. This framework will support the development and implementation of contingency plans, enabling a more comprehensive and effective approach to border management and return operations across EU Member States.

We invite you to participate in our market research survey, which aims to gather insights on systematic education and approaches related to the development of future scenarios in risk analysis within the law enforcement domain.

Frontex seeks to understand the training and methodology aspects of the market in order to customize solutions that address the unique needs and challenges faced by law enforcement agencies. Based on the market response to the survey, the Agency might organize a dedicated Industry Day, inviting relevant service providers to an online meeting to further clarify their proposed solution.

This survey is closed.

If you are interested in participating in any procurement procedures initiated by Frontex, please access the following link: Open / Restricted Tender Procedures and Low & Middle Value Negotiated Procedures.