Frontex | Risk analysis

Risk analysis is the starting point for all Frontex activities, from joint operations through training to research studies.

In order to identify short- medium- and long-term trends, a wealth of data needs to be gathered and analysed. For this, Frontex monitors the global security environment, especially those political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental factors which could affect border security.

The agency collates data from Member States, EU bodies as well as from public media and other sources within and beyond Europe’s borders. Collated data is analysed with the aim to create as clear a picture as possible of the situation at the EU’s external borders.

Analytical work of the agency is more than identification of risks. It is about maximising effectiveness in preventing cross-border crime — particularly human trafficking and smuggling - and ensuring the security of the EU’s external borders by predicting future trends and proposing remedies. Outcomes and recommendations of risk analysis are being used as well for daily coordination of joint operations.

Common integrated risk analysis model

To analyse all the data, Frontex has developed its own risk analysis model, called CIRAM - the common integrated risk analysis model. CIRAM provides Frontex with a foundation for coordinating joint operations at the external borders. Gaining knowledge on cross-border criminality is essential for the establishment of an appropriate reaction. Therefore, CIRAM enables assessment of the relative risks posed by different threats. It was developed in close consultation with member states, and is applicable both at EU and national level.

CIRAM relies on a four-tier access control model that involves gathering information from and disseminating risk analysis to a wide range of partners. Partners include border control authorities both within the Schengen area and at the external borders (e.g. Customs) as well as Member State actors in cooperating neighbouring countries and non-EU states farther afield.

The use of risk analysis is not limited to operations only however. It can also be used by decision-makers in setting priorities, developing counter-measures and determining future goals. Such assessments also underpin planning for other activities such as training, or research and development. Frontex also works closely with international organisations like UNHCR, IOM, UNODC, ICMPD, INTERPOL and Europol to identify areas where capabilities could be improved. Frontex’s risk analysis activities fall into two categories: Strategic Analysis andOperational Analysis.